BCF blog - A week is a long time in politics

Ellen Daniels 

I think former Prime Minister Harold Wilson’s quote perfectly sums up current politics, and it actually probably needs updating to “a day”, instead. The events of the last couple of days have sent my political brain into meltdown. As I write this, 8 Labour and 3 Conservative MPs have left their parties, to form what they’re calling “The Independent Group” (TIG).

Why did they defect?

Reasons for this are varied. The former Labour MPs have left out of dissatisfaction with the direction of the Labour Party, and serious allegations of anti-Semitism which are not being dealt with. The three former Conservatives wrote the Prime Minister a letter outlining their reasons for leaving- also saying they did not like the apparent move away from “one nation Conservatism”, endorsed by David Cameron, and the way Brexit is being handled.

What does this mean for Brexit and the future?

It's too early to tell what impact these defections will have on Brexit and the UK's political landscape. Some political commentators are saying that Brexit has changed the Conservatives, but I think it has just highlighted how divisive the EU is and will continue to be for the Party.

What it does mean, is that the Prime Minister has a slightly weaker minority Government than she did. We have to see how this pans out before knowing how they would vote or who they would side for, they need to decide exactly what they're fighting for- a second referendum, no deal, stop Brexit altogether? Also, they will need to differentiate themselves from the Lib Dems, as they're positioning themselves as the centrists of both Lab and Cons, which draws parallels with the SDP split (however that was only Labour MPs at the time). 

There could still be defections from both sides, and whilst this is a dent in Theresa May’s leadership, the three MPs who have left are backbenchers, known to be dissatisfied with the Conservatives. If it looks like the country will be leaving the EU with no deal, we might see Cabinet Ministers joining TIG.

Will this change the BCF’s Brexit work?

Regardless of what happens politically, the BCF will always represent its members’ interests to government, opposition, civil servants and other key stakeholders and influencers. It’s our job to watch for political developments and anticipate, analyse, and if necessary, take action where it will impact our members.

With Brexit approaching, we will be putting on a seminar for members the day before exit day on 28^th March, to inform members of what we can expect from life outside the EU, with speakers from Government, industry and the supply chain.